Now that all teams have one match under their belt, we are taking a look at the current Sportcompass predictions for the EURO 2021. By and large, the favourites are following the expectations so far, but surprising wins of underdogs vastly changed the picture in some groups. Here is situation for all groups, including the probability for all teams to reach the round of 16.

Group A

Team Round of 16
Italy 99.4%
Switzerland 64.5%
Wales 52.5%
Turkey 32.8%

Italy can already plan ahead for the knockout stages. However, there is still a lot to play for in their remaining two group matches because their placement decides the opponent in the knockout stage. If they finish 1st, their next opponent will probably be Austria or Ukraine. Meanwhile, the other teams in this group would be glad to reach the round of 16 at all.

Group B

Team Round of 16
Belgium 99.3%
Finland 73.0%
Denmark 67.9%
Russia 30.7%

Belgium is almost assured to advance, but behind them the situation is interesting. Finland could already secure a place in the round of 16 with a win over Russia. The 2nd placed team in this group will most likely face Switzerland, Wales or Turkey. A lot can happen here, so a quarter-final appearance by Finland would actually not be completely surprising anymore. Our model gives that a 25.2% chance to happen.

Group C

Team Round of 16
Netherlands 99.5%
Austria 90.5%
Ukraine 61.2%
North Macedonia 15.5%

It's hard to find any scenario where Netherlands would still be knocked out in Group C. Austria has to try everything to get a result in their upcoming match vs. Netherlands, if they want to avoid a strong opponent in the round of 16. At the moment, their likeliest opponents there are Italy, Spain, France and Portugal. The winner of this group could even meet Germany or Portugal in the next round, depending on which groups the qualifying 3rd placed teams come from. That certainly makes it a tricky situation in any case.

Group D

Team Round of 16
England 99.5%
Czech Republic 89.7%
Croatia 54.2%
Scotland 17.3%

Czech Republic's win over Scotland completely changed the picture in Group D. Their end placement and round of 16 opponents are still quite uncertain. What is almost sure is the group winner will play against France, Portugal or Germany, while most likely opponent for the 2nd placed team is Sweden. Let's wait what happens on matchday 2, but a dilemma is already visible on the horizon in which it could be advantageous to finish 2nd instead of 1st.

Group E

Team Round of 16
Spain 96.1%
Slovakia 79.7%
Sweden 71.6%
Poland 23.6%

Spain's draw vs. Sweden barely hurt their chances to advance, but Poland seems to be on their way out after losing to Slovakia. The end placements are still wide open, just like the opponents in the knockout stages.

Group F

Team Round of 16
Portugal 98.2%
France 96.6%
Germany 79.2%
Hungary 7.5%

The prospect of playing against England in London looms over the 2nd place in Group F. That means France and Portugal will put in a hard fight for the win. It's already difficult to see Germany winning this group, which puts them in an unfavourable position for the rest of the tournament. Belgium, Netherlands and England are their most likely opponents in the round of 16.

Tournament Favourites

Looking at the favourites to win the EURO 2021, England is still ahead of Belgium. We can alreday see some changes too. Most notably France and Portugal increased their chance, while Germany and Denmark are falling further behind.

Team Champion
England 15.3%
Belgium 15.0%
Spain 12.2%
France 11.0%
Portugal 10.7%
Italy 9.8%
Netherlands 7.5%
Germany 4.6%
Denmark 3.6%

Probabilities for all teams