We made a comprehensive analysis of the UEFA
EURO 2021 (officially EURO 2020) and here are the results!
Every team is rated based on past results. With those ratings, we calculate the probabilities of
results for every match and use them to simulate the whole tournament 50,000 times. The
simulations take home field advantage and all rules of the tournament into account, such as
tie-break criteria and the ranking of third-placed teams advancing to the Round of 16.
Details on how it works
Last updated: 7th July 2021 21:00 UTC
These are the probabilities for all teams to be knocked out in the respective stage of the tournament.
| Team | Knocked out in Group Stage | Knocked out in Round of 16 | Knocked out in Quarter Finals | Knocked out in Semi Finals | Knocked out in Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Belgium | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Croatia | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Czech Republic | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Denmark | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| England | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 39.13% | 60.87% |
| Finland | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| France | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Germany | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Hungary | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Italy | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 60.87% | 39.13% |
| Netherlands | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| North Macedonia | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Poland | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Portugal | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Russia | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Scotland | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Slovakia | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Spain | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Sweden | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Switzerland | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Turkey | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Ukraine | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Wales | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
This ranking shows the Sportcompass ratings of all EURO 2021 participants.
| Rank | Team | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 1721.61 |
| 2 | Spain | 1704.16 |
| 3 | Italy | 1703.43 |
| 4 | England | 1698.26 |
| 5 | France | 1694.75 |
| 6 | Portugal | 1689.89 |
| 7 | Denmark | 1671.76 |
| 8 | Netherlands | 1671.33 |
| 9 | Germany | 1665.03 |
| 10 | Switzerland | 1655.26 |
| 11 | Sweden | 1629.09 |
| 12 | Croatia | 1623.92 |
| 13 | Poland | 1619.25 |
| 14 | Czech Republic | 1618.70 |
| 15 | Austria | 1605.77 |
| 16 | Wales | 1604.77 |
| 17 | Ukraine | 1601.39 |
| 18 | Russia | 1590.87 |
| 19 | Turkey | 1587.63 |
| 20 | Finland | 1578.00 |
| 21 | Slovakia | 1576.55 |
| 22 | Hungary | 1572.30 |
| 23 | Scotland | 1566.71 |
| 24 | North Macedonia | 1547.99 |
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