Football EURO 2021

EURO 2021

We made a comprehensive analysis of the UEFA EURO 2021 (officially EURO 2020) and here are the results!
Every team is rated based on past results. With those ratings, we calculate the probabilities of results for every match and use them to simulate the whole tournament 50,000 times. The simulations take home field advantage and all rules of the tournament into account, such as tie-break criteria and the ranking of third-placed teams advancing to the Round of 16.
Details on how it works

Last updated: 7th July 2021 21:00 UTC

Placement Probabilities

These are the probabilities for all teams to be knocked out in the respective stage of the tournament.

Team Knocked out in Group Stage Knocked out in Round of 16 Knocked out in Quarter Finals Knocked out in Semi Finals Knocked out in Final Champion
Austria 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Belgium 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Croatia 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Czech Republic 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Denmark 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
England 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 39.13% 60.87%
Finland 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
France 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Germany 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Hungary 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Italy 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 60.87% 39.13%
Netherlands 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
North Macedonia 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Poland 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Portugal 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Russia 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Scotland 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Slovakia 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Spain 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Sweden 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Switzerland 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Turkey 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Ukraine 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Wales 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Team Ranking

This ranking shows the Sportcompass ratings of all EURO 2021 participants.

Rank Team Rating
1 Belgium 1721.61
2 Spain 1704.16
3 Italy 1703.43
4 England 1698.26
5 France 1694.75
6 Portugal 1689.89
7 Denmark 1671.76
8 Netherlands 1671.33
9 Germany 1665.03
10 Switzerland 1655.26
11 Sweden 1629.09
12 Croatia 1623.92
13 Poland 1619.25
14 Czech Republic 1618.70
15 Austria 1605.77
16 Wales 1604.77
17 Ukraine 1601.39
18 Russia 1590.87
19 Turkey 1587.63
20 Finland 1578.00
21 Slovakia 1576.55
22 Hungary 1572.30
23 Scotland 1566.71
24 North Macedonia 1547.99

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